Well, this could have been foreseen ... even if they did have relatively little choice at the time.
The travelers entered Fallujah first through a checkpoint operated by the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps, a U.S.-trained paramilitary unit meant to add muscle to the American-led occupation. The men in black berets distractedly waved cars past, onto the city's main street. Then it became apparent who was really in charge. A few yards in, wild-eyed young men in masks pulled cars over at will, searched them and demanded identification documents. No one could leave or enter without passing muster. Other groups of fighters in masks roamed side streets and alleys, brandishing rifles at all sorts of angles.
It was not supposed to be like this. Under an agreement made last month with U.S. Marine commanders, a new force called the Fallujah Brigade, led by former officers from Saddam Hussein's demobilized army, was to safeguard the city. The unruly gunmen -- many of them insurgents who battled the Marines through most of April -- were supposed to give way to Iraqi police and civil defense units. Instead, the brigade stays outside of town in tents, the police cower in their patrol cars and the civil defense force nominally occupies checkpoints on the city's fringes but exerts no influence over the masked insurgents who operate only a few yards away. [...] Moreover, continuing mayhem on Fallujah's outskirts raises the question of whether the Americans have simply created a safe haven for anti-occupation fighters. On Saturday, a Fallujah-based group calling itself the Mujaheddin Battalions announced it was transferring its fight to Baghdad -- but was still committed to the truce in its home city.
New Iraqi Government Declares Militias Illegal
By Edward Cody
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, June 7, 2004; 2:00 PM
BAGHDAD, June 7 -- The new Iraqi government and U.S. occupation authorities declared all militias illegal Monday and outlined a $200 million program to redirect their estimated 100,000 fighters into official security forces, civilian professions or retirement.
The most immediate effect of the order, issued in the name of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, was to formally outlaw the Mehdi Army of Muqtada Sadr, the defiant Shiite Muslim cleric who has confronted U.S. occupation forces in bloody clashes for the past two months, according to senior occupation officials. The order also stipulated that Sadr and his lieutenants, as punishment for being members of a now illegal armed group, are barred from holding public office for three years. That threw up a legal barrier in the path of mainstream Shiite political and religious figures seeking to draw Sadr and his followers away from armed resistance to the occupation and into Iraq's postwar political process.
Basically, this truce has pretty much ensured either a fundamentalist Muslim enclave in what's left of Iraq -- the new governing authority has no ability to deal with them, and unless they resort to a draft to pull in large numbers of people, will never have the armed forces necessary to cope -- or that the US occupation army will eventually be forced to head into Fallujah (and later, Najaf) to deal with the situation once and for all. They've likely not prevented countless civilian noncombattant casualties and the damage and (hopefully) incidental destruction of Muslim holy sites; it's merely been delayed until the insurgents are stronger and better able to deal. In the meantime, they'll be exporting their tactics to other parts of the country. That the militias themselves have been branded illegal is of no particular significance, at the moment; it's not as if the Iraqi Governing Council has the ability to go after them, and we don't have the volition ... or, for that matter, the ability.
“EVERYTHING is going to move everywhere.” With these words Douglas Feith, the American under-secretary of defence for policy, described how America’s military presence around the world was to be shaken up dramatically. In the past week, the picture of what that shake-up will look like has become clearer. The New York Times reported that America is planning to move two army divisions out of Germany, its main cold-war base in Europe. It may also move a wing of fighter aircraft from Germany to Turkey, provided that the Turks allow the Americans full control of them. Other naval forces could move from Britain to Italy. And on Monday June 7th, South Korea announced that by 2006 America will withdraw some 12,500 troops from the country, roughly a third of its total presence there. [...] The South Koreans have more reason than the Germans to be nervous. They still face a cold-war threat: the million-man North Korean army parked just across the “demilitarised zone” (DMZ) that runs between the two countries. America had already announced that it would move 3,600 of its troops in South Korea to Iraq, and had moved those along the DMZ somewhat further south. Monday’s announcement of the much larger withdrawal is thus the continuation of a process already begun (though it is not known where the rest of the 12,500 will go). The smallish American presence on the ground was never much more than symbolic in any case. The brunt of any fighting would fall on South Korea’s nearly 700,000 soldiers. America has reiterated its commitment to defending South Korea from attack by the communist North, stressing that its improving technology and weapons more than make up for reduced troop numbers.
U.S. to Pull 12,000 Troops From South Korea
By JAMES BROOKE (New York Times, June 7, 2004)
The United States plans to withdraw one third of its 37,000 troops from South Korea by the end of the next year, according to a South Korean government official. [...] The cutback appears to be part of a wider rearrangement of American troops in the Pacific. In Tokyo today, the newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported that the United States is sounding out Japan about moving some of the 14,000 United States marines stationed in Okinawa to a Japanese base in Hokkaido.
And no doubt Hokkaido is sitting there thinking, "Well, what the hell would WE want with all those troops?"
One suspects quite strongly that the troops, depending on how long it takes to rework the troop strength, will simply be sent to Iraq. At this point, it's the only move that makes sense. They're already dismantling training units here to send to Iraq, thus ensuring that troops being sent out will now be less well trained. Might as well send troops already deployed to try to somewhat ease the burden on troops already there. (And never mind the fact that what were originally time-limited enlistments have turned into eternal enlistments with the latest "stop-loss" order; the government's current policies are pretty much ensuring that the military will endure several lean recruiting years. Desire to serve has its limits, and for many, those limits are likely to be the fact that service looks to be a permanent career choice, whether you want it or not. But I digress.)
The problem with this, of course, is Korea. Granted that the troops there were never more than symbolic. The combination of decreasing troop strength, plus moving them back out of direct harm's way, sends a signal both to Seoul and to Pyongyang: Sorry we can't help out over ther, but we're busy right now. Please leave your name, number and a brief message at the sound of Pyongyang blowing up a South Korean city or two. BOOM!
Posted by iain at June 07, 2004 02:08 PM
